Life without 100LL.

[YawningMan]

Some of you may have already heard about this. I only heard about it this week. Apparently, it's been a topic for 20 years. It just hasn't been a hot topic.

I believe this is the article I saw in a publication at the school that alerted me to 100LL's grim future.

http://www.generalaviationnews.com/?p=15644

[Mike]

wouldn't it be better to have diesel next for small GA aircraft?!

just wondering.... don't hate me!
let me hear some arguments!

[Rooster Cruiser]

Engine manufacturere are having problems making diesel engines that are light enough to be shoehorned into existing aircraft designs.  Of greater concern is finding an alternative fuel that can be used by the current fleet of aircraft.

I fear that lots of the big singles and twins will be parked come 2016/2017.  Same for the big warbirds.  Those engines simply cannot produce their rated horsepower without Tetra Ethyl Lead.  Sad to say it, but we may be seeing the end of the flying careers for the old WWII airplanes.

Other airplanes which will be impacted will be the newer Beech Bonanzas, Barons, Cessna's entire piston twin engine line, and Piper's Navajo's.  What is going to replace these airplanes?

RC

[Mike]

Man! I totally didn't think about the old warbirds!!!

Imagine a world with no more F4U Corsairs!! 

Maybe we need to do a strip about the whole thing to do our part in raising awareness.....

[Rooster Cruiser]

Man! I totally didn't think about the old warbirds!!!

Imagine a world with no more F4U Corsairs!! 

Maybe we need to do a strip about the whole thing to do our part in raising awareness.....

That's a good idea Mike.  One which Trade-a-Plane should run to raise awareness of the impending doom of 100LL

[Oddball]

OH NOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!! A world with out RR Merlins and Griffons is un-thinkable!! 

[YawningMan]

It seems as though jet fuel is still okay, so that's good news. I'm thinking piston powered warbirds will begin to populate museums and scrapyards, sadly.

I think electricity will be viable as long as the battery technology comes about. Of course, there's the issue of what it takes to generated the electricity... The Twinstars LeTourneau University used to have had diesels. We traded them for gasoline engines when the diesel engine supplier in Germany went belly up. It would be too costly to maintain engines which are not being supported. They had roughly the same fuel burn of a single engine about the size of a Cessna 206, but everyone complained about their performance.

I'm thinking I need to really get my idea to run a sailing club off the ground. That might be the only way to cheaply fly for some time until this mess is sorted out. Business could be good.

I'm still geeking out about the Continental O-200s I saw in a catalog recently. $20,000US for a 100 hp engine that won't be usable in 7 years, at best...

I agree that it is important to keep our environment in mind. Still, this is not a small hurdle we are talking about. I'm sure we'll come out on the other side with a good solution. I just hope we don't lose too many companies or gain too much regulation in the process. The politics that can be put in place at a time like this could be the more damaging than the loss of a venerable warbird fleet.

[Rooster Cruiser]

I'm still geeking out about the Continental O-200s I saw in a catalog recently. $20,000US for a 100 hp engine that won't be usable in 7 years, at best...

The smaller engines will work just fine on unleaded autogas or the proposed 96UL grade fuel.  Anything that was originally designed to run on 80 Octane fuel will be able to be used.  Its only the larger displacement engines that were designed and certified to run on 100 Octane or 115/130 Octane fuel that will be adversely affected.

Continental's O-200, O-300, and O-470 will not need major alterations if any.  Same for Lycoming's O-235, O-320, and O360.  However, these engines only consume a small fraction of the current 100LL production.  Just about any flat engine that is fuel injected will not be able to operate on 96UL unless they are derated substantially to prevent detonation.

Surprisingly, a lot of the Radial engines were certified to run on 80 Octane, and will continue to operate without modification on the newer fuels.  The smaller Wrights, Jacobs, and Pratts (say, below the R-985) will continue to operate.  I am not sure whether the R1340 was certified on 100 Octane or 80.

I wish someone would ask Swift Fuel whether their biofuel will allow the big radials and Merlin powered airplanes to operate.  That will depend whether the old warbirds decline in value.  I've already advised an investor against purchasing a warbird fleet until that question is answered.


RC

[Mike]

wait, are you saying the old birds with their radials would be able to fly on 80 octane?

getting rid of AVGAS is more a money issue than an environmental issue I am thinking......

[FlyboyGil]

wait, are you saying the old birds with their radials would be able to fly on 80 octane?

getting rid of AVGAS is more a money issue than an environmental issue I am thinking......

Anything that keeps the old birds flying, I'm happy.

[Rooster Cruiser]

No, it is an environmental issue.  EPA claims that despite the elimination of TEL from autogas they continue to find trace amounts of lead in water supplies throughout the USA.  Since EPA has determined that the goal is Zero amounts, they are taking steps to eliminate ALL possible sources of lead.  The largest emissions of lead into the atmosphere is most probably Avgas, followed by certain smelters.

In general, any of the old warbirds with engines producing over 1000HP were designed to use 100 Octane fuel.  I am afraid this precludes most of the fighters and bombers us old warbird fans love.  The Corsair has a 2000hp radial, for instance.  The Packard built Merlin used in the P51 was rated at 1600hp.  These are the warbirds that I fear will be grounded, but I'm not sure yet.

RC

[Mike]

No, it is an environmental issue.  EPA claims that despite the elimination of TEL from autogas they continue to find trace amounts of lead in water supplies throughout the USA.  Since EPA has determined that the goal is Zero amounts, they are taking steps to eliminate ALL possible sources of lead.  The largest emissions of lead into the atmosphere is most probably Avgas, followed by certain smelters.

I agree but seeing how everything in this country seems to come down to a money issue . . . Don't you think there is a chance the whole Avgas business is starting to not pay for the big corporations anymore (possibly the grief they're getting for still using lead included) and they are playing the environmental card to keep the public from really getting upset their Avgas is going away?!   

BTW: what would that mean for Robinson and Schweizer and all those little helicopters? Same thing?

[Rooster Cruiser]

...everything in this country seems to come down to a money issue...

Mike, you are becoming a dangerous man... better watch yer backside!!!     To quote the famous Sleuths, "Follow the Money."

Yes it is a money issue, but not the money you think.  Environmental groups like Friends of Earth, Audubon Society, The Sierra Club and more have legal divisions.  Those lawyers have sued the US Federal Government to force the EPA into doing things like banning Lead.  Through the legal system, these private groups are suing our government and they are getting the government to pay ALL costs of the lawsuit... including the Environmentalists' Attorney Fees!  So in the end, it is all about the money the Lawyers can extort out of the Federal Government in order to line their own pockets.  The rest of the country be dammed.

Methinks Robinson would be in trouble.  They use a fuel injected engine in the R22 and a turbo'd fuel injected engine in the R44.  I am not sure about the Schweizer.  Again, nearly all fuel injected flat engines from about the IO-360 and up have higher compression ratios that require 100 Octane fuel in order to achieve their rated power without suffering detonation.

RC

[TheSoccerMom]

I remember guys getting ALL wigged out back in the 70s, because "we're gonna be out of gas!!"  They even had meetings to discuss the effects on all the WWII-era airtankers...  which is all there was at the time.

And, here we are, over 30 years later....  I still hear 'em overhead...  Hmm-mmmm.....

Don't think it's quite the dire emergency I've been hearing about for over 30 years now.....   

 

[Fabo]

I understand now it is different. It is not "running out" that is worrying (frankly, when that is going to happen, and it is NOT going to happen in proclaimed 20 years, as noted by you, it does not work this way, there will be some replacement ready. For example, diesels can run on sunflower oi with minimal or no changes.)

but this time, they are trying to BAN it, which is MUCH worse. Anyway, I guess this only applies to the US, so, hopefully, we are safe here in Europe. Because I WANT that Trener rating in my logbook, whenever I get to fly SEPs...